June 1, 2019

This Year’s “Near-Normal” Hurricane Season Could Still Be Devastating

Scientists expect as many as four major storms in the next few months.

A Florida couple stands in the ruins of their home after Hurricane Michael in October 2018.Scott Olson/Getty

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Today marks the official start of the 2019 hurricane season. While experts predict it will be a “near-normal” season in the Atlantic Ocean, it still could wreak havoc.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center expects as many as 15 named storms and 2 to 4 major hurricanes this season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. An average season has three major hurricanes classified as category 3, 4, or 5 storms. Overall, NOAA predicts there will be a 40 percent chance of a “near-normal” season.

The ongoing El Niño is expected to suppress the intensity of this hurricane season, according to NOAA. However, unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean combined with an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to increase hurricane activity.

Last year’s hurricane season was the third consecutive year with above-average number of damaging hurricanes. In 2017, record-breaking hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated the parts of southeastern United States and Puerto Rico respectively.

Climate experts have said that global warming will cause more extreme weather events and will likely make hurricanes more intense. 

The Trump administration has been criticized for falling short on its emergency response after Maria hit Puerto Rico, killing more than 2,500 people. A year and a half later, residents are still waiting for funds to rebuild the island. President Donald Trump’s feud with Puerto Rican government officials continues as hurricane season starts. 

For the fifth year in a row, a tropical cyclone broke before the start of the season. On May 20, subtropical storm Andrea hit east of the Bahamas. 

NOAA also forecasts that the Pacific has a 70 percent chance for an above-normal season. The agency is expecting at least 15 to 22 named storms, of which 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes.

NOAA

 

 

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

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