How Long Will the Recession Last?

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HOW LONG WILL THE RECESSION LAST?….I don’t know. But I was noodling about this and thinking that since the housing bubble is at the core of all our problems, it’s unlikely the economy will turn up before the housing market hits bottom. So when will that be?

Based on historical price-to-income ratios, Calculated Risk suggested a few days ago that it would bottom out by Q3 of next year, or maybe a little later. But extending CR’s chart and assuming the market bottoms gradually, rather than sharply, it looks to me like we might have to wait until the middle of 2010.

Like I said, this is just noodling. The housing market might bottom sooner than I think, and the economy might start to recover even while the housing market still has a little more slumping to do. But probably not much before. I don’t think I’d be surprised if we’re still in recession this time next year.

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Fact:

In-depth journalism that investigates the powerful takes real money and is so damn important right now.But it doesn’t take a Mother Jones investigation to know that billionaires and corporations will never fund the type of reporting (like they do politicians) we do that exists to help bring about change. Instead, our mission-driven journalism is made possible by people power, and has been for 46 years now since our founding as a non-profit.

In “TITLE TK” Monica Bauerlein writes about the perilous moment we’re in, and why it’s so important that we raise $325,000 by the time November’s midterms are decided so we can be ready to throw everything we have at the big issues facing the nation no matter what happens. Please help MoJo’s people-powered journalism with a donation today.

$400,000 to go!

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