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Via Brad DeLong, Menzie Chinn compares the CBO’s February and March projections of economic disaster and notes that they’ve become considerably more disastrous in only a month:

Notice that the no-stimulus counterfactual output gap and unemployment rates are noticeably worse now than only a month ago (see this post). For 2010, the February counterfactual was -6.3% of GDP, now around -10%; the February counterfactual for 2010 was 8.7% unemployment, now it’s nearly 11% (I’m eyeballing the current counterfactuals off of Figures 2-1 and 2-2)….My guess is that that “massive” stimulus is going to look a lot less “massive” given the severity and duration of this recession.

A month ago CBO estimated that unemployment would hit 8.7% in the absence of a stimulus package.  Now they think it would have been around 10.5%.  With the stimulus, they think it will top out at a little over 9%.

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Fact:

In-depth journalism that investigates the powerful takes real money and is so damn important right now.But it doesn’t take a Mother Jones investigation to know that billionaires and corporations will never fund the type of reporting (like they do politicians) we do that exists to help bring about change. Instead, our mission-driven journalism is made possible by people power, and has been for 46 years now since our founding as a non-profit.

In “TITLE TK” Monica Bauerlein writes about the perilous moment we’re in, and why it’s so important that we raise $325,000 by the time November’s midterms are decided so we can be ready to throw everything we have at the big issues facing the nation no matter what happens. Please help MoJo’s people-powered journalism with a donation today.

$400,000 to go!

payment methods

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