From Paul Krugman, ruminating over the recent leaks about the results of the Treasury’s stress tests:
Even Brad DeLong, who has been relatively sympathetic to the administration here, is disturbed by the idea that regulators are negotiating with the banks about the test results. Now it seems as if the report’s contents may also be dictated by what, based on the response to leaks, the informed public is willing to swallow. (“Would you believe it if we say Citi is fine? OK, what if we say they need $5 billion? Not enough? How about 10?”)
The source of the stress test leaks is mysterious, but it’s the numbers themselves that baffle me more. Most of the leaks, for example, suggest that Citigroup will be told it needs additional capital of $10 billion, a figure so low it would barely be worth bothering with. Conversely, most of the numbers I’ve seen thrown around from independent analysts come to ten times that amount or more. If it turns out that Citi really is short by only $10 billion, it means we can all breathe a sigh of relief and declare an end to the banking crisis. I woldn’t count on that, though.