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The last major El Niño event occurred in 1997-98 and it produced a big temporary spike in global temperatures.  This has given climate deniers like George Will a field day: if 1998 was hotter than 2008, global warming must be a hoax!  This is ridiculous, of course: El Niño events happen every five years or so (the 2004 El Niño was a smallish one) and choosing one of those years as your baseline for temperature activity is like choosing 2000 as a baseline for dotcom activity.

Well, El Niño is back, and this year’s version looks like it’s going to be at least a moderate strength occurrence lasting through next summer.  This means that temperatures are likely to spike over the next 12-18 months, and that in turn means that even with the sun in a deep solar minimum, next year might set a new warming record:

The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, probably pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend “will be never talked about again.”

Unfortunately, this is wishful thinking.  If 2010 really is hotter than 1998, I suspect that deniers will suddenly discover the virtue of not relying on a single year that’s strongly affected by decadal oscillations.  They’re clever that way.

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And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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