Employment Woes

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I don’t really know what kind of track record these guys have, but e-forecasting now thinks that GDP grew 5% in the final quarter of 2009. At the same time, the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December, for a total of over 200,000 jobs lost in Q4. Using the rule of thumb that we need to add about 400,000 jobs per quarter just to tread water, this means that we fell behind by about 600,000 jobs even as GDP was growing at a pretty good clip.

I don’t know quite what this means. Maybe e-forecasting will turn out to be wrong. But if we’re really still losing jobs at this clip even with GDP picking up smartly, it doesn’t suggest anything good. I sure hope the conventional wisdom that employment is just a lagging indicator and it will soon start climbing rapidly turns out to be right. I don’t think I believe it, though. A long, slow recovery still seems more likely than not.

UPDATE: More here: “Total underemployment — the famous U-6 — is still extremely and stubbornly high at 17.3%, and the total number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, is double what it was at the start of the recession in December 2007….The bigger picture [] is important. And it shows a US workforce which is underemployed and looking at jobs which, when they do exist, are insecure and often temporary. Capital took its lumps in 2008 and the early months of 2009; it then recovered astonishingly quickly. It’s labor which is suffering the real hangover.”

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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