How do we know if conditions are improving in Afghanistan? COIN expert David Kilcullen provides a list of indicators in a new paper. My favorite is this one, with commentary from Tom Ricks:
“Prices of exotic vegetables” and “Transportation prices.” Now we are getting into the nitty gritty. Anything that embarrasses your S-3 as he discusses it in the briefing probably is a good metric. Until now most of DK’s recommendations have been more or less rooted in common sense. But to understand this weird one, you need to understand local conditions. What people are paying for vegetables grown outside their district is a quick indicator of road security. Trucking companies factor in the risks they face, as well as the cost of bribes and other forms of corruption. So variations over time may be a helpful indicator of trends in public perception of security conditions and the corruption level of government security forces.
“Where local officials sleep.” I really like this one because it is so simple, but it never occurred to me. In fact, I have never seen it listed before in works on metrics in warfare. But it makes sense. DK writes that, “A large proportion of Afghan government officials currently do not sleep in the districts for which they are responsible.” He recommends looking into whether they fear for their safety, or perhaps are outsiders not really welcome in the districts. Both reasons are important, but have far different significance for your operations.
This is probably harder to measure than vegetable prices, but still an interesting and nonobvious thing to keep track of.