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Karl Smith says:

I like to focus on inflation because I think just about all of us have agreed that inflation is primarily controlled by actions at the Fed.

I’m ripping this completely out of context1 because it reminds me of a question I have for any economists who care to respond. Here it is: it’s now been 30 years since the stagflation of the 70s. Is it still the consensus view that the inflation of that era was caused by a union-triggered wage-price spiral? Or do we believe that Milton Friedman was right, and inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, even in the 70s? Or something else?

Just to be clear, I should add that I’m not asking if the wage-price spiral was a factor — I’m sure it was — but whether it was the proximate cause. Or were loose fiscal and monetary policy the cause, and union demands simply a reaction? The reason I ask is simple: Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates from 1979-1981, and inflation fell. This suggests that union demands were mainly a response to perceived Fed seriousness about inflation, not a primary cause of 70s inflation. Likewise, although unions have declined in the U.S., they’ve remained pretty strong in much of Europe and there’s been no repeat of 70s-style inflation there. This also suggests that monetary policy is considerably more important than union wage demands.

But I don’t know. So I’m tossing it out. Any macro or labor economists care to venture an opinion?

1But you can, of course, click the link to see what he’s talking about. Hint: inflation is going down unless the Fed decides to do something about it.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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