Facts matter: Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily newsletter. Support our nonprofit reporting. Subscribe to our print magazine.

I can’t believe I’m writing a post about a Gallup poll on the GOP primary race in May 2011. I made a firm rule years ago not to engage in nonsense like this. But rules are meant to be broken, and today is a slow news day, so here it is.

Is there anything interesting here? Not really. Sarah Palin is in second place at 15%, but that’s a lot worse than it seems. She’s basically in Ron Paul territory: tons of name recognition and the benefit of a small band of dedicated fanatics. Everyone knows there’s a sizeable group of Palinistas out there who would vote for her even if she ran the entire race dressed up in a Mickey Mouse costume, and now Gallup has confirmed this. Big deal.

Newt Gingrich? He’s in big trouble. He’s been around forever, he has fantastic name recognition, he’s on TV constantly, and he still can’t pull more than 9%? He’s doomed.

Herman Cain?  There’s always a blowhard who knows nothing and just loudly spouts lots of “common sense” during the early debates in order to attract attention. This year that’s Cain. His bubble will burst soon enough.

As for the rest, Michele Bachmann is just a Sarah Palin wannabe, Huntsman is running for 2016, and Johnson and Santorum are vanity candidates. Basically, it still looks to me like a race between Romney and Pawlenty, with lots of spoilers to make things interesting. I just don’t see a path open for any of the others to win.

THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

payment methods

THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate