November 4, 2011

Europe Sneezes, We Catch a Cold

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Real Time Economics reports on the latest forecast for Europe’s economy:

J.P.Morgan was among the first European banks to forecast a euro zone recession, meaning two-straight quarter of economic contraction, back in September. It was supposed to be a modest one, with GDP falling just 0.8% from its peak.

It now looks like things will get even worse. “We now believe that the recession will be deeper and longer lasting, and we are making forecast changes to show a peak to trough move in the level of GDP of just over 1%, with the recession lasting through the third quarter of next year. The risks around this forecast are for a deeper and even longer lasting contraction,” the bank said in its latest research note.

Urk. I’m not even sure what kind of comment to offer on this. But it strikes me as unrealistic to think that Europe can fall into a recession — possibly a deep one — and the United States won’t be seriously affected. I know we have an overhang of demand for cars and houses, and that’s going to spur more spending, but a recession in Europe is going to affect jobs in America, which affects incomes in America, which means there’s no money for cars and houses no matter how much overhang there is.

On the other hand, maybe there’s a cheerier scenario (for America, not Europe). It’s possible, I suppose, that a recession in Europe will drive down demand for oil, which in turn will lower the price of gasoline, which in turn might stimulate the U.S. economy more than Europe’s recession hurts it. Somebody somewhere must have modeled this, right?

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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