The Employment Picture Remains Murky and Hard to Parse

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Paul Krugman says that although the employment picture is looking up, it still has a ways to go. To illustrate this, he displays a chart showing the employment-population ratio for prime age workers age 25-54:

I agree that this is a telling statistic. It really does indicate that we haven’t made up much of the ground we’ve lost since 2007, so I don’t have any argument with Krugman using it. At the same time, you get a different picture if you pull back and disaggregate the data a bit. Here’s another view:

I don’t want to make too much of this, especially since I’m not sure exactly what we should make of it. But the employment-population ratio among men has been declining steadily for over half a century, and right now we’re only a point or two below the trendline for men. Conversely, participation among women plateaued starting in the mid-90s, which suggests that we’re still a good four points or so below the trendline for women.

Maybe. The question is what the long-term trend really is. I’m not sure what to say about that, but it’s been niggling at me for a very long time. Basically, I just want to caution everyone not to treat 2007 as a magic year. There’s no question that employment is still in the doldrums, but the question of where the employment-population ratio “should” be is not easy to pinpoint.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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