The Pew Hispanic Center reports that net immigration from Mexico into the United States has probably turned negative for the first time since the Great Depression:
The standstill appears to be the result of many factors, including the weakened U.S. job and housing construction markets, heightened border enforcement, a rise in deportations, the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and broader economic conditions in Mexico.
I wonder if conservatives will ever give President Obama any credit for this? He’s taken plenty of heat from lefties over his enforcement and deportation policies, after all, and he’s apparently done it in the hope that if illegal immigration can be slowed or stopped, it might be possible to turn down the temperature a bit on immigration hysteria and gain support for the kind of comprehensive reform that failed back in 2006.
In theory, that should work. But I have my doubts. The problem is that the Republican Party is becoming ever more dependent on white votes and the Democratic Party is becoming ever more dependent on minority votes. For purely partisan reasons, then, they both have big incentives to keep the heat cranked up as high as they can. Compromise is becoming less and less in either party’s interest. Regardless of who wins in November, 2013 is probably about the best chance for broad reform we’re going to have. It’s just going to keep getting harder after that.