A Wee Bit of Immigration Reform Arithmetic

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Today the Senate passed its immigration reform bill. It passed by a huge bipartisan majority, which is supposed to bode well for its future. But here’s a little bit of bipartisan math to ponder over:

  • It received 14 Republican votes.
  • That’s 30 percent of the Senate Republican caucus.
  • If the eventual House bill does as well—not likely, but let’s be optimistic—it will receive 71 Republican votes.
  • To pass, it will then need 147 Democratic votes.

This is pretty much a best-case scenario. So ask yourself: Is John Boehner willing to let immigration reform pass with a 2:1 Democratic majority? Or, more likely, something like a 3:1 Democratic majority? I guess you never know, but it doesn’t seem very likely.

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