A Wee Bit of Immigration Reform Arithmetic

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Today the Senate passed its immigration reform bill. It passed by a huge bipartisan majority, which is supposed to bode well for its future. But here’s a little bit of bipartisan math to ponder over:

It received 14 Republican votes.
That’s 30 percent of the Senate Republican caucus.
If the eventual House bill does as well—not likely, but let’s be optimistic—it will receive 71 Republican votes.
To pass, it will then need 147 Democratic votes.

This is pretty much a best-case scenario. So ask yourself: Is John Boehner willing to let immigration reform pass with a 2:1 Democratic majority? Or, more likely, something like a 3:1 Democratic majority? I guess you never know, but it doesn’t seem very likely.