Punters Agree: Bush Won, Trump Lost on Wednesday

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Ed Kilgore is aghast that Politico ran a story using prediction markets to figure out who won Wednesday’s debate:

I’ve been known to joke that at its worst Politico gives you a snail’s-eye view of American politics. But this is self-parody: hourly variations in betting market!

Obviously Ed is a killjoy. But I kinda think he’s wrong too. Betting markets are an interesting and sometimes useful tool for getting real-time feedback on high-profile races. For example, here’s a chart from PredictWise, a Microsoft research project that aggregates several betting and prediction markets:

The winners: Fiorina, Rubio, and Bush. The losers: everyone else. Since this precisely matches my own post-debate judgment, I declare this an excellent analytic tool.

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IT'S NOT THAT WE'RE SCREWED WITHOUT TRUMP:

"It's that we're screwed with or without him if we can't show the public that what we do matters for the long term," writes Mother Jones CEO Monika Bauerlein as she kicks off our drive to raise $350,000 in donations from readers by July 17.

This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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