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Der Tag! Go vote today. And drag some of your apathetic friends to the polls too—though you might want to ask them first who they plan to vote for.

Despite my reliance on Pollster throughout this race—primarily because they produce pretty pictures—my most trusted poll guru for the past decade has been Sam Wang. So without further ado, here are his final projections:

President: Most probable single outcome: Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV….The win probability is 93% using the revised assumption of polling error. National popular vote: Clinton +4.0 ± 0.6%.

Senate: 51 Democratic/Independent seats, 49 Republican seats.

House: Generic Congressional ballot: Democratic +1%, about the same as 2012. Cook Political Report-based expectation: 239 R, 196 D, an 8-seat gain for Democrats.

My own guess is that Clinton will do a bit better than a 4 percent winning margin in the popular vote. I’ll go along with Wang on the Senate. And perhaps out of a surfeit of optimism, I’ll take the over on the House. So my final guess is: Hillary Clinton wins by 4.7 percent in the popular vote; the Senate ends up 51-49 Democratic; and the House ends up 235-200 Republican.

What’s your guess?

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In “TITLE TK” Monica Bauerlein writes about the perilous moment we’re in, and why it’s so important that we raise $325,000 by the time November’s midterms are decided so we can be ready to throw everything we have at the big issues facing the nation no matter what happens. Please help MoJo’s people-powered journalism with a donation today.

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Fact:

In-depth journalism that investigates the powerful takes real money and is so damn important right now.But it doesn’t take a Mother Jones investigation to know that billionaires and corporations will never fund the type of reporting (like they do politicians) we do that exists to help bring about change. Instead, our mission-driven journalism is made possible by people power, and has been for 46 years now since our founding as a non-profit.

In “TITLE TK” Monica Bauerlein writes about the perilous moment we’re in, and why it’s so important that we raise $325,000 by the time November’s midterms are decided so we can be ready to throw everything we have at the big issues facing the nation no matter what happens. Please help MoJo’s people-powered journalism with a donation today.

$400,000 to go!

payment methods

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