Weekly Poll Update: The Race Has Tightened Slightly, But Clinton Is Still Comfortably Ahead

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Let’s get our final weekly polling update out of the way early. Here’s Pollster:

Clinton is 6.1 percentage points ahead of Trump, down a point from last week. In the generic House polling, Pollster has Democrats ahead by 3.4 points, also down a point from last week. Sam Wang’s meta-margin has Hillary Clinton leading Trump by 2.6 percentage points, down a point and a half from last week:

Wang’s current prediction is that Clinton has a 99 percent chance of winning and will rack up 312 electoral votes. He still has the Senate tied, 50-50, with the probability of Democratic control at 76 percent. On the House side, he has Democrats up by about 3 percent, which is not enough for them to win back control.

Overall, it continues to look like Hillary Clinton will win by 4-5 points, with my personal 95 percent confidence range at 3-6 points. The Senate will either be tied 50-50 or Democrats will win 51-49. Either way, they’ll control the Senate. The House will remain in Republican hands. Whether those hands are Paul Ryan’s or someone else’s remains to be seen.

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This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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