The Senate Tax Bill Will—Oh, You Know Already, Don’t You?

I still feel like crap today. On the bright side, I feel slightly less like crap than yesterday. Nevertheless, that probably means I should stick to nice, easy subjects. I think I managed to screw up yesterday’s post about the income of the top 1 percent five or six times before I finally got it right.¹

The Republican tax bill is always good for an easy post. Let’s try that. Here’s the latest Penn Wharton estimate of the effects of the bill all the way through 2040²:

There you go. By 2040, more than two decades from now, the Senate bill will create an extra $2 trillion in debt. At the same time, it will increase both GDP and labor income by 0.5 percent. That’s 0.02 percent per year, which is basically noise level. We can’t even come close to measuring GDP that accurately. For all practical purposes, the likely effect of the bill on GDP and labor income is zero.

No one in the Republican Party seems to care about that, and charts full of numbers don’t have any impact on the average voter. Still, just for the record, I figure it’s worth posting this stuff. Someone ought to.

¹It’s now correct, and probably fairly understandable too. Thanks, readers!

²The Penn Wharton folks produce both high and low estimates. I’ve averaged them here to get a single number for each category.

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THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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