The Generic Ballot Is Predicting a Republican Bloodbath Next Year

I am generally a skeptic of the “generic ballot” question. This is the one that asks if you plan to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in an upcoming congressional election, and Democrats always seem to hold a big lead. But then that lead fades away, and in the end they either win by a small amount or lose outright.

But I have to admit that the current generic ballot is pretty impressive: according to 538, Democrats are leading by a whopping 12 points. And the folks at 538 claim that generic ballot results a year ahead of the election are actually pretty predictive: anything above 5 points for the out party translates into a big win in November. So perhaps there’s some genuine cause for optimism here.

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Fact:

In-depth journalism that investigates the powerful takes real money and is so damn important right now.But it doesn’t take a Mother Jones investigation to know that billionaires and corporations will never fund the type of reporting (like they do politicians) we do that exists to help bring about change. Instead, our mission-driven journalism is made possible by people power, and has been for 46 years now since our founding as a non-profit.

In “TITLE TK” Monica Bauerlein writes about the perilous moment we’re in, and why it’s so important that we raise $325,000 by the time November’s midterms are decided so we can be ready to throw everything we have at the big issues facing the nation no matter what happens. Please help MoJo’s people-powered journalism with a donation today.

$400,000 to go!

payment methods

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