Yet More Non-Bad News About Obamacare

How’s Obamacare doing? CMS reports that it tanked in 2017 thanks to declines in the number of people willing to buy unsubsidized health insurance. But let’s examine this more closely. First, Andrew Sprung notes that it’s not really Obamacare itself that’s been affected:

One peculiarity: all of the drop in unsubsidized enrollment was apparently off-exchange. In fact, unsubsidized enrollment on HealthCare.gov and the state exchanges rose slightly in 2017, from 2.1 million to 2.2 million (though the “unknown” subsidy status of 83,516 enrollees all but closes the gap).

So the decline in 2017 was entirely outside Obamacare, not within the exchanges themselves. Second, CMS also provides some 2018 numbers, and they show that although initial Obamacare enrollments were down this year, the number of people who are actually paying for coverage is up:

As of March 15, 2018, 10.6 million individuals had effectuated coverage through the Federal and State-Based Exchanges for February 2018, meaning that they selected a plan, paid their first month’s premium, if applicable, and had coverage in February 2018….The number of individuals with effectuated coverage for February 2018 is approximately 3 percent higher than February 2017 effectuated enrollment of 10.3 million individuals, as of March 15, 2017.

The truth is that we don’t know yet what’s happening. Donald Trump’s sabotage efforts led to higher prices, and it makes sense that this would mostly affect people who don’t qualify for subsidies. After all, they’re the only ones who were hit with an actual price increase. Poorer people, who qualify for subsidies, pay a percentage of their income that stays the same no matter what the actual monthly premium is.

That said, with the unemployment rate continuing to drop, it’s possible that some of the decline in the off-exchange market was due to people getting jobs and switching to employer insurance. We won’t know for sure about this until we get survey results for the number of uninsured. The CDC’s numbers, which I consider the most reliable, are still months away, but we should get an early read from Gallup pretty soon. As a baseline, here’s the Gallup report up through the end of 2017:

If the 2018 number stays around 12.2 percent, it means the rising off-exchange premiums probably led to changes in health insurance, not declines. If it goes up more than a few tenths of a percent, it means the higher premiums are having a real effect on the number of people who have health insurance. We’ll see.

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with The Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with The Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate