Predictions For Tuesday

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I have no intention of making any predictions about Election Day.  The New York Times, for example, suggests that Democrat Katie Porter will edge out incumbent Republican Mimi Walters here in my home district, the California 45th deep in Orange County. That would be so great! But having lived for 60 years—represented by Republicans in every single one of those years—it’s just hard to believe it might finally happen. We’ll see.

Anyway, with no polling days left before Election Day, here are two projections for the House. The first is from Sam Wang:

He puts the generic congressional ballot at +8 percent for the Democrats, which would be enough to barely win control of the House with a pickup of around 30 seats. And here’s Nate Silver:

This appears to be a bit more optimistic, with a projection of a 38-seat Democratic gain and an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House. Keep your fingers crossed and keep ringing those doorbells!

POSTSCRIPT: As for the Senate, don’t ask. No one has much confidence the Democrats can run the table and take back control. Unless something big happens, it looks like Mitch McConnell has two more years left as majority leader.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

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