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In the New York Times, Susan Rice writes about Iran and concludes with this: “It’s hard to envision how this ends short of war.”

I’m not making a prediction one way or the other, but it’s pretty easy to envision how this ends short of war. In fact, the most likely scenario is that both sides continue to launch periodic “retaliatory” attacks, but they slowly wind down and we end up right where we started. That’s how things like this usually go.

I’m not saying that’s what will happen. President Trump could do something stupid, or he could goad Iran into doing something stupid. Who knows? But if I had to put my money on something, it would be another few weeks of bluster and low-level strikes, followed by everyone getting exhausted and deciding to call a nervous halt to things.

DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

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DONALD TRUMP & DEMOCRACY

Mother Jones was founded to do things differently in the aftermath of a political crisis: Watergate. We stand for justice and democracy. We reject false equivalence. We go after, and go deep on, stories others don’t. And we’re a nonprofit newsroom because we knew corporations and billionaires would never fund the journalism we do. Our reporting makes a difference in policies and people’s lives changed.

And we need your support like never before to vigorously fight back against the existential threats American democracy and journalism face. We’re running behind our online fundraising targets and urgently need all hands on deck right now. We can’t afford to come up short—we have no cushion; we leave it all on the field.

Please help with a donation today if you can—even just a few bucks helps. Not ready to donate but interested in our work? Sign up for our Daily newsletter to stay well-informed—and see what makes our people-powered, not profit-driven, journalism special.

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