How Long Will Lockdowns Last? Probably Through Mid to Late May.

In Nepal, police use this device to arrest lockdown violators.Skanda Gautam/ZUMA

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How long will we have to remain on lockdown? There doesn’t appear to be any sure answer, but based on various expert testimony it looks to me like a good guess is 8-10 weeks. In the US, lockdowns started around March 20, which would mean they’d start getting lifted in mid to late May. If anyone knows of a better expert prediction, leave it in comments.

By the way, compared to Europe our lockdowns are sort of feeble. Aside from plain old tougher rules, there are two reasons for this. First, European lockdowns are generally countrywide, not just here and there wherever a governor or mayor happens to want one. Second, lockdowns are enforced by police and military and there are big fines for breaking the lockdown rules. Check out this Politico piece to get a sense of just how seriously European governments take the whole thing.

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