Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 11 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 11. Germany showed a big decline today in its daily death rate, but they also reported fewer cumulative deaths than yesterday. I suspect a reporting error. Italy hiccuped, but hopefully is still on a downward trend. Spain is declining. Canada, as always, remains teacher’s pet. And the United States has had a couple of days higher than trend. This might be nothing, or it might suggest that our peak will be a little farther away than Tuesday. There’s just no way to know until it happens.

How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 37; total deaths are at 2,309x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 206.7 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 37.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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