Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 16 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 16. Like Tuesday, Wednesday was not a great day. Italy is still stalled; Germany is up; Sweden is up; even Canada ticked up more than usual. This might be noise or it might be a sign that we’re not peaking soon after all.

For the first time, I also have a serious data problem. As you know, it’s widely believed that COVID-19 deaths have been undercounted pretty much everywhere. However, this is not a big problem as long as the undercounting is consistent. The absolute numbers will be off, but you can still see growth rates and curve flattening just fine.

Unfortunately, New York City decided on Tuesday to rejigger their numbers in midstream by 3,700. This means that their numbers going forward aren’t comparable to past numbers. And if those numbers get aggregated up to the state and national level, it means those counts are also no longer usable.

The two main sources for the US death toll are Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project. It appears that Johns Hopkins is using the new, higher numbers, while the CTP isn’t. For the first time ever, these two sources disagree by a substantial amount.

What to do? I don’t know, so I’m going to punt until things become clearer. I’m using the CTP numbers for now, which don’t include the New York City revisions. I’ll switch later if things clear up a little more.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 42; total deaths are at 2,990x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 267.8 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 42.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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