Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 22 Update

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through April 22. Something worth noting is that it’s now clearer than ever that the growth rate of COVID-19 is asymmetrical. That is, it goes up quickly, plateaus for a few days, and then declines slowly. What this means is that if you look at the death toll in the middle of the plateau, you probably have to more than double it to get the death toll for the entire first wave. Every country is a little different, and the death toll depends a lot on how stringently countermeasures are kept in place, but this is why a final death toll of 100,000 looks more likely than not for the United States.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The COVID Tracking Project is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

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