Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 3 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 3. France had another big jump and is now above the Italian trendline. Spain continues to skyrocket and will surpass Italy in deaths per million by tomorrow. On the bright side, Spain looks like it’s finally getting close to its peak:

The data has gotten a little noisy over the past few days, but there are obviously signs of flattening here. However, it’s still too early to try to fit a curve to the United States, which remains solidly in its exponential phase:

The model currently in favor at the White House predicts that mortality in the US will peak at 2000-2500 deaths per day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up above that.


I made some changes today. The scale for Italy and Spain is so big that it’s getting hard to read the charts for everyone else. So I’ve put the three countries with the largest outbreaks on the top row and the other six below with a more compressed scale. I like having the same scale for everyone, but I think it’s outlived its usefulness.

How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 29; total deaths are at 1,087x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 97.3 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 29.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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