Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 1 Update

Here’s the coronavirus death toll through May 1. For some reason there was no update on Friday for Spain, so its chart goes only through April 30.

I have a feeling my comments on these posts are going to start getting repetitive. The basic story is that nearly all the countries are continuing to show steady declines, and as the days go by they look better and better. There are two exceptions. The first is Canada, which may or may not have peaked, but certainly isn’t going down. Their absolute numbers are still quite low, but this should make it all the easier to put in place test-and-trace programs to stamp out what little they have. So why isn’t this happening?

The second, of course, is the United States. We are declining, but it’s a slow, weak decline. In the last 14 days we’ve dropped from about 2,400 deaths per day to 2,000 deaths per day. If we keep up this rate, we won’t hit zero until mid-July after 85,000 more deaths, for a total official death toll of about 150,000. This would most likely mean an actual death toll of 250-300,000.

I’m not saying this is what will happen. I’m just saying that normally the biggest decline comes right after the peak, but our post-peak decline has been feeble. Maybe additional testing will get us on the right track. On the other hand, the evidence that the public is getting weary of lockdowns means that we might stop declining at all. I’m not sure anyone truly knows how to project this, but given our weak progress so far it sure looks like we ought to be keeping lockdowns firmly in place for at least a few more weeks.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here. The Public Health Agency of Sweden is here.

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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