Here’s the US Death Toll From COVID-19 Not Counting New York

Every day I show you the growth rate of COVID-19 deaths in the US. But some people think that’s misleading. After surging in April, deaths in New York state are now declining, and that affects the national numbers. In particular, it makes it look as if our death toll is declining, when it’s really rising everywhere except New York. So how about showing us the national numbers without New York included?

Fine. Here it is:

Now let’s talk about whether it’s a good idea to look at things this way. I’m skeptical. In nearly every dataset there are one or two points that are really high and pull up the average. And it’s always tempting to pull those out. Aside from Texas, oil production in the US is down. Aside from Los Angeles, air quality is getting better. Etc. But there’s always a highest data point. And the average always comes down if you can dream up some reason to exclude it. In the case of COVID-19, that happens to be New York today. But tomorrow it might be Florida. Then Illinois. Who knows? Should we always exclude whichever state is rising or falling the fastest?

I don’t think so. I’ll grant that it’s interesting to look at the trendline without New York, but I’m not sure it’s justifiable. It’s better to look at the full set of numbers and just chart the ups and downs. Alternatively, it’s also fine to look at states on their own to see who’s doing well and who isn’t.

One other thing: there’s an op-ed in the New York Times today showing the COVID-19 toll with and without New York, but it’s showing new cases, not new deaths. I continue to think this is probably highly misleading since different states have vastly different testing regimes. If, say, New York is testing 1 percent of its population and Florida is testing 0.1 percent, then New York will overwhelm the total regardless of who’s going up and who’s going down. Likewise, as testing becomes more widespread, looking at cases over time becomes unreliable even within a single state. The case rate can look like it’s skyrocketing just because we’re testing far more people.

I do think we have to look at case counts, and we have no choice but to use the numbers we have. However, they should be taken with a very big shaker of salt.

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with The Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with The Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate