The Wall Street Journal reports that existing home sales were down in November. “Without a doubt, there are too many buyers in relation to the sellers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “That is probably the main driver as to why the sales declined.”

I’m not sure this makes any sense—high demand would normally prompt more people to sell, wouldn’t it?—but put that aside. What you really need is some context. Here it is:

Yes, existing home sales were down slightly in November, but the general trend is nothing but upward in recent months: up 23 percent since the beginning of the year and up 14 percent since July. Does this mean that suddenly, on November 1, there were too many buyers? Nah. It just means there’s noise in the data series.

Plus, it turns out that home prices were down slightly in November, which suggests lower demand, not higher. But I’d venture to guess that’s just noise too.

For some reason, both reporters and their sources feel like they have to provide an explanation for everything that happens in the economy on a monthly, weekly, or even daily basis. This has been going on forever (“The stock market fell on news of an Elvis sighting in Paraguay”), and it’s ridiculous. If there’s a trend to report, fine. But a single blip is really unlikely to have much of a reason behind it. Everyone needs to stop pretending otherwise.

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BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

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