Baby-faced Biases

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The Times of London highlights some interesting research about voter preferences:

Psychologists in the United States have discovered that voters tend to judge politicians with more immature features as less competent, and thus tend to favour opponents with a more grown-up appearance.

Baby-faced politicians, it turns out, are out of luck. But hey, maybe voters “gut feelings” aren’t entirely awry; maybe it’s the case that leaders with immature features do tend to be, on average, less competent. After all, in Malcolm Gladwell’s recent book, Blink, the author laments the fact that CEOs tend to be taller than the average person, and concludes that human “heuristics”—short-cuts used to make judgments about people—are leading us astray into groundless biases. But is the “tall CEO” bias necessarily a grave and mortal error? It’s possible, after all, that taller people are, on average, more likely to have grown up being taller than their peers, and hence more confident, more assertive, etc. That’s just a wild guess, but it’s certainly possible.

So what about baby-faced politicians? Well, Alex Tabarrok notes an earlier set of studies by the same researchers showing that “babyfaced men are actually more intelligent, better educated, more assertive and apt to win more military medals than their mature-looking counterparts.” In this case, then, it looks like our heuristics actually are leading us astray, perhaps leading us to choose less competent leaders. Needless to say, that’s not a good thing.

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WE'LL BE BLUNT

It is astonishingly hard keeping a newsroom afloat these days, and we need to raise $253,000 in online donations quickly, by October 7.

The short of it: Last year, we had to cut $1 million from our budget so we could have any chance of breaking even by the time our fiscal year ended in June. And despite a huge rally from so many of you leading up to the deadline, we still came up a bit short on the whole. We can’t let that happen again. We have no wiggle room to begin with, and now we have a hole to dig out of.

Readers also told us to just give it to you straight when we need to ask for your support, and seeing how matter-of-factly explaining our inner workings, our challenges and finances, can bring more of you in has been a real silver lining. So our online membership lead, Brian, lays it all out for you in his personal, insider account (that literally puts his skin in the game!) of how urgent things are right now.

The upshot: Being able to rally $253,000 in donations over these next few weeks is vitally important simply because it is the number that keeps us right on track, helping make sure we don't end up with a bigger gap than can be filled again, helping us avoid any significant (and knowable) cash-flow crunches for now. We used to be more nonchalant about coming up short this time of year, thinking we can make it by the time June rolls around. Not anymore.

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