Who Are the Expected Winners Tonight?

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Let me devote one paragraph to the Republicans right here at the beginning, and then I’ll likely ignore them for most of the night.

Mike Huckabee won Kansas by a three-to-one margin earlier today, a sign that in deeply conservative parts of the country (particularly those parts with lots of evangelicals) Republicans are not completely on board with McCain. He’s got some work to do in winning these people over. That said, his delegate lead is so massive that it would take a miracle for Huckabee to win. Huckabee, knowing this, told the Conservative Political Action Conference today, “I didn’t major in math. I majored in miracles, and I still believe in them.” Maybe he thinks conservatives will coalesce around him as the alternative to McCain, but I doubt it. He is a social conservative, but isn’t really an economic conservative. And he has no foreign policy credentials.

Okay. Republican results will come in for the caucus in Washington and the election in Louisiana. But unless something spectacular happens, I’m going to spend most of this lonely Saturday night blogging about the Dems.

So who has the advantage in the Democratic primaries today?

First off, what’s the playing field for the Dems? There’s a caucus in Nebraska, a caucus in Washington, and an election in Louisiana.

Let’s start with Louisiana. Half of the Democratic electorate is expected to be black, meaning that the demographics will mirror South Carolina and other Southern states that Obama has won. There has been no polling, but Obama has spent a lot of time in the state and has said all the right things about hurricane recovery, which, according to local reports, is the only issue in the Bayou State. Obama has also outspent Clinton in advertising there. Expect Obama to win handily.

Next, Nebraska. It’s a caucus state, which have gone almost universally for Obama in this primary season (presumably because (1) Obama’s supporters are more committed, (2) Obama organizes better than Clinton, and (3) there’s no Bradley Effect at work). Obama has also won almost all of the Mountain/Prairie primaries — he took 74% in neighboring Kansas on Super Tuesday, for example. Obama also has endorsements from the state’s two biggest Dems, Senator Ben Nelson and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. Again, expect an Obama victory.

Washington is another caucus state. It is the bluest state of the day, meaning more core Democrats for Hillary Clinton, but it also the only open primary on the slate, meaning independents can vote for Obama. There’s only been one poll in the state according to pollster.com, and it shows a double digit lead for Barack Obama. (By the way, early turnout reports say it’s going to be huge huge huge.)

So a sweep is possible for Obama. The Obama campaign’s internal delegate memo that was accidentally released to the press recently shows that Obama’s people expect to win all of the states today, and the Clinton campaign shot an email to reporters downplaying expectations. We’ll keep you posted.

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That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

payment methods

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