Popular Vote Musings on a Friday Afternoon

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A friend just alerted me to the fact that the popular vote section at Real Clear Politics has myriad different totals for the Democratic primary race. Enough to make the notion of a “popular vote” useless, in fact.

Here are the different ways you could calculate the popular vote. If there’s something I’m not thinking of, tell me in the comments.

1. Just the primaries.
2. The primaries with Florida.
3. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to Obama.
4. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to no one.
5. The primaries, plus caucuses.
6. The primaries with Florida, plus caucuses.
7. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to Obama, plus caucuses.
8. The primaries with Florida and Michigan with Michigan’s “uncommitted” going to no one, plus caucuses.

You can see why people are so confused. Further complicating the picture: Iowa, Nevada, Maine, and Washington state are caucus states that have not released public figures on caucus attendance. Estimates are needed in those instances.

I think in scenario 4, Clinton might be winning the popular vote. Maybe. Or something.

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FACT:

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Today, reader support makes up about two-thirds of our budget, allows us to dig deep on stories that matter, and lets us keep our reporting free for everyone. If you value what you get from Mother Jones, please join us with a tax-deductible donation today so we can keep on doing the type of journalism 2020 demands.

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