Poll: New Hampshire Primary is Romney’s to Lose

Flickr/<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/wacphiladelphia/4558469973/sizes/m/in/photostream/">World Policy Council of Philadelphia</a>

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The New Hampshire primary, the first of the presidential race, can make or break a candidate’s run for the White House. According to a new WMUR Granite State Poll, New Hampshire’s 2012 Republican primary is Mitt Romney’s to lose, with 40 percent of prospective voters saying they’d vote for the former Massachusetts governor. The next closest presidential hopeful, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, received just 10 percent support.

Straggling in behind them were former governors Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee with 7 percent each. Then comes former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin with 6 percent, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) with 5 percent, Donald Trump with 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Mississippi governor Haley Barbour with 1 percent.

No doubt Romney’s is partly owed to his tenure governing Massachusetts, a neighboring state. But his overwhelming support in New Hampshire also reflects the political make-up of the state’s voters, who tend to care more about fiscal issues and less about religion and the culture wars. “Romney is doing well in part because his brand of Republicanism fits with most New Hampshire Republicans, who can be characterized as ‘Rockefeller Republicans,'” Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, told WMUR. Not that Romney’s political DNA did much good in 2008, when he lost the state to John McCain.

If Palin does decide to launch a 2012 presidential bid, she’ll have her work cut out for her in must-win early states like New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. Right now, polls show flagging support for her in these states. Public Policy Polling recently found that Palin’s support in Iowa was a mere 15 percent, badly trailing Mike Huckabee at 30 percent. Another poll by a Republican strategy firm also found Palin trailing Huckabee by double digits. Should Palin run and then lose Iowa and New Hampshire, her presidential aspirations would be all but sunk.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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