Quick Reads: “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t 

By Nate Silver

PENGUIN PRESS

Nate Silver, now the New York Times‘ resident stat-head, began earning his rep as something of a whiz by devising a probabilistic model that changed the way baseball franchises evaluate players. And during the 2008 election, he correctly predicted the winner of 49 states and all 36 Senate races. But his book isn’t a victory lap, it’s a confession: We’re not as smart as we think we are. From the housing bubble to political science, the best and perhaps the brightest routinely blow the biggest calls because they can’t separate the signal (truth) from the noise (distractions). We’ll risk one prediction, though: Silver’s book will be hard to put down.

This review originally appeared in our September/October issue of Mother Jones. 

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This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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