The Best Evidence That Hillary Clinton Has an Edge in Florida

Latinos in the key battleground state could make the difference.

Eric Gay/AP

Let our journalists help you make sense of the noise: Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily newsletter and get a recap of news that matters.


Florida is a crucial swing state with razor-tight margins—according to FiveThirtyEight, it’s the state most likely to tip the presidential election. In 2012, President Barack Obama won the state by just 74,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast. On Friday, new polling in Florida offers evidence that Hillary Clinton may have an edge against Donald Trump. The key is Hispanic voters.

According to the exit polls, Obama won 60 percent of Florida’s Hispanic voters while Republican Mitt Romney won 39 percent. In polling released Friday by Latino Decisions, a firm that focuses on the Latino community, Clinton’s lead is 14 points larger than Obama’s margin of victory; she’s beating Trump 62 percent to 27 percent. Florida’s Latinos, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s registered voters, are generally more conservative than the national Latino electorate, largely due to the sizeable and conservative-leaning Cuban population.

Given that the poll was conducted just before Trump’s hardline immigration speech in Arizona on August 31, it’s possible Trump’s numbers could slide further among Florida Latinos, Gabe Sanchez, a pollster with Latino Decisions, told reporters on a conference call Friday.

If Clinton can significantly outperform Obama among Latinos in Florida, that could give her a key edge in what is looking to be a tight—and critical—race in the Sunshine State.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate