Paul Ryan May Want to Quit After Looking at This Chart

The House speaker may maintain his majority—but lose his most loyal members.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

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Most pollsters agree that the Republicans are likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming election. Yet according to a new analysis, House Speaker Paul Ryan could wind up with a motley majority full of rebels who stymie his leadership.

Washington superlobbyist Bruce Mehlman looked at the makeup of the House GOP caucus and found that the 22 House Republicans who are most antagonistic to Ryan’s agenda (members who voted with the leadership less than four times on 11 key votes) are safe in the upcoming election. Meanwhile, all of the at-risk Republicans are either Ryan loyalists (28) or what Mehlman has dubbed “persuadables” (15)—lawmakers who fall somewhere in between the other two categories.

http://mehlmancastagnetti.com

Mehlman put together this analysis as part of a presentation on why it is urgent for Congress to tackle pressing issues such as passing a budget, approving funding to fight the spread of the Zika virus, and spending on Louisiana flood relief. There are 33 days left on the legislative calendar—after which, as Mehlman’s presentation suggests, Ryan may have a difficult time corralling his caucus to do much of anything.

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Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

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SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

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