Paul Ryan May Want to Quit After Looking at This Chart

The House speaker may maintain his majority—but lose his most loyal members.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

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Most pollsters agree that the Republicans are likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming election. Yet according to a new analysis, House Speaker Paul Ryan could wind up with a motley majority full of rebels who stymie his leadership.

Washington superlobbyist Bruce Mehlman looked at the makeup of the House GOP caucus and found that the 22 House Republicans who are most antagonistic to Ryan’s agenda (members who voted with the leadership less than four times on 11 key votes) are safe in the upcoming election. Meanwhile, all of the at-risk Republicans are either Ryan loyalists (28) or what Mehlman has dubbed “persuadables” (15)—lawmakers who fall somewhere in between the other two categories.

http://mehlmancastagnetti.com

Mehlman put together this analysis as part of a presentation on why it is urgent for Congress to tackle pressing issues such as passing a budget, approving funding to fight the spread of the Zika virus, and spending on Louisiana flood relief. There are 33 days left on the legislative calendar—after which, as Mehlman’s presentation suggests, Ryan may have a difficult time corralling his caucus to do much of anything.

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This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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